Apple’s Year-Over-Year Mac Quarterly Sales Projected Up 30%, iPods Up 8%

Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray estimated that Apple’s fourth fiscal quarter, which ends on September 30, will see sales of 2.8 to 2.9 million Macs and 11 million iPods, as well as about 4.2 million iPhones. This is based on data released on Tuesday by the NPD Group.

The Mac numbers, if accurate, will reflect year-to-year unit growth of between 29% to 34%. This is higher than Wall Street’s estimate of 25%, but is also down from the 43% year-to-year growth that the sales of Mac saw in July.

Munster suggests two possible reasons why Mac sales have decelerated in August. The first is that the Mac product line is due for an update. “The portables are late in their product lifecycles,” he writes. The on-going whispers about the anticipated new MacBooks may also be slowing things down, Mr. Munster. The expectation of a forthcoming product refresh is putting some purchasing on hold. Sources have been reporting is that we can anticipate new MacBooks by mid-October.

The second reason Munster suggests is that the overall consumer environment is “negatively impacting Apple’s business,” something he suspects will not change any time soon, given the economic meltdown that is still happening this week. However, if we take a look at Paul Carton’s and Jim Woods’ co-written article for ChangeWave, we see that, while PC buying is remaining weak among consumers, those who plan to buy new equipment in the next 90 days claim they are buying Apple. Carton reports, “Apple planned purchases for the next 90 days have hit a new all-time high for both Laptops (34%; up 2-pts) and Desktops (30%; up 3-pts).” This would support the speculation that purchasers are poised, waiting for the new product line.

The 11 million iPod sales estimated for this quarter would represent a year-to-year increase of 8% — which is ahead of Wall Street’s 6% consensus estimate. Munster points out that this is lower than the double- and triple-digit growth of recent years. He doesn’t take into consideration the fact that buyers were waiting for the “Let’s Rock” event on September 9, expecting price changes and redesigns of the iPod line. He probably also fails to consider that the extraordinary number of iPhone purchases this summer were also music-player purchases. The sales of the new iPod line will give us a clearer picture of how well the segment is really performing, but must always now be considered in connection with the sales of the iPhone.

The amazing iPhone sales numbers over the summer may be slowing down, but that’s to be expected. And since there is still a projected 4.2 million sales for this quarter, it is clear that the demand still exists. In fact, Carton and Woods see the 3G iPhone as producing a “Halo” effect on other Apple sales, most particularly on Mac sales. “We also asked whether Apple’s recent release of its 3G iPhone has made respondents more or less likely to buy an Apple Mac computer in the future. A total of 17% say they’re now more likely to buy an Apple laptop or desktop in the future because of the 3G iPhone; only 1% said less likely. These highly positive findings point to the 3G iPhone having at least some “Halo” effect on Mac sales going forward.”

In this terribly frightening economic climate, the performance of Apple products is nothing short of astonishing. It is Carton’s and Woods’ perspective that make the most sense. They write,”The key takeaway from these survey results is that consumer electronics spending will remain weak over the next 90 days. The one bright spot is Apple, whose Mac sales are outperforming and are poised to once again reach new all-time highs.”